Housing Data Fuels Surge In US Equities

Posted by man on 05 February 2012

Equity markets and high yielding currencies are seeing major advances higher as improved housing info in the USA and cited optimism in German business confidence surveys helps fuel a low volume, pre-Christmas rally. Other pieces of supportive news came with the ECB’s release of the first tranche of funds in its 3 year loan programme and the successful bond auction in Spain. Yesterday’s financial policy meeting with the Bank of Japan was typically uneventful, with no change in the states base rate and no new additions to its asset purchase plan.

Yesterday’s macro data focused on the US home market and German business confidence. US Housing Starts information rose to its highest level in 19 months and researchers will use this along with today’s releases (MBA Mortgage Applications and Existing Home Sales) to pinpoint the validity of the trend. We will also see some significant revenues releases in the household products sector as Walgreen’s and Bed Bath & Beyond will report along with CarMax and Micron Technology. The key headline in US shares came after Oracle released disheartening quarterly profits and dropped nearly 9% in the O.E.M session.

In ratings reports, Fitch placed Italian and Spanish non-public banks on “negative watch” and lowered its credit outlook on four further French banks, on the discussion the European Financial Stability Facility could become ruined itself and limit the capability of these banks to receive private funding when required. The total impact of these statements was limited, as order flows appear to govern price activity but the long term impact of these events is probably going to be reviewed next year.

In the USA, the Fed Reserve has instituted plans to require banks to extend their capital reserve proportions (as agreed by Basel III international necessities and the recent Dodd-Frank bill). The general view is this is a defensive move (rather than an attempt to limit pricing pressures) with the primary objective of protecting banks against potential liquidity shocks that might enter the finance sector at later.

Today’s price activity is suggestive of what can be seen when trading volumes lower. At the beginning of this week’s trade, volatility slowed to a near halt before posting intraday gains of over 3% in some indices with few fundamental drivers. Due to these possibilities, traders should make preparations for the likelihood of astonishing and drastic moves in either direction and stop loss levels should be conservative.

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